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← Episode 6: Ir-Replika tal-Budget
Episode 6 · 2 November 2026
The claim

Disruptions to Russian energy supplies and the Iran conflict put significant pressure on Europe's economy.

Chris Cilia

Verdict True

Both shocks pushed up energy costs and weighed on Europe's economy. Russia supplied 45% of the EU's gas imports and 27% of its oil imports in 2021, and the cut in Russian gas helped drive gas and electricity prices to record levels in 2022. In 2026, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted almost 20% of global LNG supply, and the European Commission cut its EU growth forecast for the year from 1.4% to 1.1%. Europe's economy kept growing, but that does not mean the shocks were costless.How we reached this verdict ↓

Analysis and evaluation

Europe went through two energy shocks in four years, and both left a mark on its economy.

Europe depended heavily on Russian energy

In 2021, Russia supplied 45% of the EU's gas imports and 27% of its oil imports. When Russian gas deliveries were disrupted after the invasion of Ukraine, gas and electricity prices rose to record levels in 2022, at a heavy cost to households and businesses. Prices had already begun rising in 2021 as demand recovered after the pandemic, but dependence on Russia left Europe especially exposed.

The Iran conflict brought a second shock

The International Energy Agency reported that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted almost 20% of global LNG supply, pushing European and Asian gas prices to their highest since the 2022 to 2023 crisis. Europe was hit through world energy markets, even though it does not rely directly on Iranian supplies.

In May 2026, the European Commission cut its EU growth forecast for the year from 1.4% to 1.1%, citing the new energy shock, a return of inflation and weaker confidence.

Resilience is not the same as no damage

The ECB's October assessment described the euro area economy as resilient, with broad growth in the first half of 2026 and rising employment. Better energy efficiency and a shift towards less energy-hungry activity helped limit the impact. An economy can keep growing while higher energy costs squeeze household budgets, raise business costs and weaken growth prospects.

Evaluation

Both disruptions raised energy prices in Europe and weighed on its growth. That is why the claim is rated True.

Editorial note

How we assessed this claim

We read the claim as being about the economic impact of the two energy disruptions, and checked it against the Council of the EU, the International Energy Agency, the European Commission and the ECB.

True, because both shocks raised energy prices and the Commission cut its growth forecast in response to the second. The economy's resilience does not contradict the claim.

Limitations

  • EU and euro area figures cover different groups of countries.
  • Growth forecasts are not final outcomes.
  • Energy prices had started rising in 2021, before the invasion of Ukraine, as demand recovered after the pandemic.

Sources

  1. Council of the EU, REPowerEU and dependence on Russian energy
  2. Council of the EU, Energy price rises since 2021
  3. International Energy Agency, Gas Market Report, Q2 2026
  4. European Commission, Spring 2026 Economic Forecast
  5. European Central Bank, Resilience of the euro area economy, 21 October 2026