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← Episode 5: Il-Budget ta' Malta 2027
Episode 5 · 26 October 2026
The claim

Most of Malta's economic growth over the past decade came from a growing population, not from higher productivity.

Darren Carabott

Verdict Mostly true

A Malta Chamber study finds that of the 81.9% growth in Malta's economic output between 2015 and 2025, 68.9 percentage points came from more workers and only 3.1 from higher productivity. The study measures employment, not population, so the reference to population growth is not entirely precise.How we reached this verdict ↓

Analysis and evaluation

The Malta Chamber's figures support the argument. Of the growth in Malta's economy between 2015 and 2025, by far the largest part came from more people working, and only a small part from higher productivity.

What the Chamber found

In its proposals for the 2026 to 2031 legislature, published in May 2026, the Malta Chamber of Commerce, Enterprise and Industry broke down the growth in gross value added (GVA), the value of what the economy produces, between 2015 and 2025. GVA grew by 81.9%, from €10,151 million to €18,460 million.

Of those 81.9 percentage points, 68.9 came from an expanding workforce, 9.9 from a shift towards higher value-added sectors, and only 3.1 from improvements in productivity.

What drove Malta's growth in gross value added, 2015 to 2025 Waterfall chart, € million. GVA in 2015 10,151. Added by more workers 6,992. Added by a shift to higher-value sectors 1,008. Added by higher productivity 310. GVA in 2025 18,460. €0bn €5bn €10bn €15bn €20bn €10,151m GVA in 2015 +€6,992m More workers +€1,008m Shift to higher-value sectors +€310m Higher productivity €18,460m GVA in 2025
Total GVAMore workersSector shiftProductivity
Gross value added in Malta, 2015 and 2025, and the contribution of each source of growth, € million. Source: The Malta Chamber, LEAD: Proposals for the 2026 to 2031 Legislature, Figure 2.

Put another way, more workers account for €6,992 million of the €8,309 million increase, about 84%. Productivity accounts for €310 million, under 4%. The Chamber's Human Capital report, by Professors Rose Marie Azzopardi and Alexiei Dingli, reached the same conclusion in April 2026: growth "has been largely driven by workforce expansion rather than productivity gains".

Workers, not population

The study measures employment growth, not population growth directly. Employment can also increase when more existing residents enter the workforce. In Malta most of the extra workers in this period came from abroad: the Budget speech puts the rise in foreign workers between 2015 and 2025 at about 106,000, out of about 130,000. The two are closely linked, but they are not the same measure.

The argument is therefore supported by the evidence, although the reference to population growth is not entirely precise.

Editorial note

How we assessed this claim

We used the Malta Chamber study the speaker cited, which splits growth in gross value added between 2015 and 2025 into the contribution of more workers, of a shift between sectors, and of productivity.

Mostly true rather than True, because the study measures growth in employment, not population, and employment can also rise when more existing residents start working.

Limitations

  • We report the Chamber's breakdown as published and did not recalculate it from national accounts data.

Sources

  1. The Malta Chamber, LEAD: Proposals for the 2026 to 2031 Legislature (May 2026), p. 4
  2. The Malta Chamber, Final Human Capital report, 29 April 2026
  3. Budget Speech 2027, Hon. Clyde Caruana, 26 October 2026, p. 28 (labour market)