Which party benefits from a low turnout?

Silent Day is upon us so all that is left for us to do is analyse the numbers we may be getting next Sunday.


We will start this analysis by taking a look at what the surveys are saying. The main takeaway points we have to look at to answer our question are:

1. there is no shift of voters going from one party to another

2. The gap has remained the same in percentage terms and lies somewhere around 11.5%

3. Undecided voters are split equally between past PL voters and past PN voters


With this information in mind, we can now start making our calculations.

We know that the number of registered voters is close to 355,000.

A 92% turnout means that a 10% gap would translate to 36,400 votes

An 86% turnout means that a 10% gap would translate to 34,000 votes.

Therefore, all other things kept constant, one can conclude that the PN would stand to gain with a lower turnout, as it would result in a lower gap from the get-go.


Thus, a lower turnout will help the PN narrative, while a higher turnout helps the PL narrative, assuming the highlight of the discussion is the number of votes.



How can we compare the results of the 2017 election with 2022?

Such a discussion has multiple changing variables, but it can be done. One has to compare the number of cast votes and the actual gap. A quick way to make this assessment is to take the percentage as a measure. There are some conclusions one can reach if we use the actual number of votes as a metric. However, to understand who did better, it is sounder to wait for the election result on Sunday.